Indonesia Trade Data Summary: COVID-19April 15, 2020
Recent news coming out of Indonesia shows yet another country that is seeing a spike in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Additional and intensifying restrictions are expected to come into effect today or tomorrow, according to The Star, a Malaysia-based news site. Jakarta, which has been on a strict social distancing policy since April 10, will be joined by several neighbours. So far, this has not affected the shrimp sector, however, farmers fear that a looming nation-wide lockdown could affect the transport of shrimp to major processing plants. Indonesia has just published its January export data, so I wanted to share some of the observations that came out of our member Trade Data Analysis and Price Portal Updates.
Despite the global crises in market demand, as well as the looming national lockdown in Indonesia, sources tell us that farmers anticipate that prices will improve over the next three months. As of writing, many processing plants are still operating at full capacity. Farmers have stocked abundantly and in one or two months a lot of raw material will be available in Indonesia. Farmers are expecting to harvest in time for Eid al-Fitr celebrations taking place after Ramadan in the last week of May. Compared to the volumes exported in January 2019, exports in January 2020 increased by 21% to a total of 17,384 tonnes. With this, the average price also recovered from $8.53 in December 2019 to $8.58 in January 2020, an increase of 1.61% over January 2019. The total value reached $149 million.
Though 2020 volumes and values had a promising start, and February’s data has yet to be published, we are expecting to start seeing signs of COVID-19 on Indonesia’s trade. Indonesia’s exports highly depend on the demand from importing countries mainly from the US. However, as the US market is currently down due to the pandemic, sources told us that strengthening its position with China is vital, especially as it is now gradually recovering from COVID-19. Regardless, as we do not expect things to have returned to normal by the end of May, Indonesian farmers might find farm gate prices to be lower than they expected.
Has there been any change in the main markets for Indonesian shrimp? Will Indonesian shrimp exporters manage to shift some of their products to the Chinese market? If they do, what will that mean for other producing countries? In this latest trade update, we show the changes in Indonesia’s shrimp markets year-on-year, and we analyzed the main shrimp products that Indonesia has exported.
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Check out the full article in TheStar at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/12/indonesia-extends-large-scale-social-restrictions-as-covid-19-cases-surge
5 days left till you can dive into the Indonesia Sourcing Update in the next edition of ShrimpTails.