Members’ Trade Data Analysis: Indonesia Q1 2020 Summary

June 11, 2020

Indonesia’s Q1 export data, despite COVID-19, has seen an average increase of 21% YOY, reporting 53,781 tonnes of shrimp. January, February and March saw a YOY growth of 21, 32 and 14%, respectively.

Indonesian exports of shrimp in 2018, 2019 and 2020

Indonesia’s YOY increase in Q1 export was, at least in part, a result of the rise in the US’s imports of (Indonesian) shrimp (members, you can find more information about US imports in your library). Indonesia exports a large quantity of peeled and value-added products and, with the recent US/China trade war, one of their biggest competitors in the category has lost some of its competitive advantages. To add to this, while COVID has hurt the hospitality industry, it has seen some increase in the demand for products that are easy to prepare at home.

At the beginning of Q1, as the epidemic sent farm gate prices into a downward trend, Indonesian farmers were reluctant to stock and/or harvest their ponds. Since the beginning of Q2, as countries started to get a handle on the epidemic, prices began to recover. This meant that in the lead up to Q2, many farmers started to prepare their farms, aiming to harvest in time for the Eid celebrations in May. Many of these farmers are already in their next crop cycle.

It remains to be seen what happens in Q2’s trade data. For a start, our sources have led us to believe that COVID’s impact on Indonesian exports will be reflected more clearly in Q2. Furthermore, some exporters think that trade won’t stabilise and arrive at “the new normal” until Q3 or even in Q4.

If this is the case, with a relatively sizeable Indian harvest expected in September, Indonesia’s shrimp production could find itself competing in a market that has yet to recover its appetite. Still, with (American) consumers increasingly looking for products that are easy-to-cook at home and the increased taxes on Chinese shrimp, Indonesian exporters may have an opportunity to increase their share of the global export market.

This summary offers you a sneak peek at Indonesia’s Trade Data Analysis for Q1, 2020. Members, find the full report in your library, which includes the breakdown of exports by country and price developments over the first quarter of the year.

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